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A (Very) Dirty War

October 15th, 2010 No comments

My autographed copy of the English translation of Anna Politkovskaya's A Dirty War from 2001.

New York- I was looking through some boxes of old dusty books today and came across my now most treasured copy of A Dirty War: A Russian Reporter in Chechnya by Anna Politkovskaya. Anna was killed by a so-called “control shot” in the elevator of her Moscow apartment building on October 7, 2006; the assassin still unknown. Her killing has been unsolved for over four years now and likely never will be. It is the Russian Federation after all. Many years ago now, I stumbled upon a semi-rare copy of her paperback book from England in the stacks of the Strand bookstore here in New York. I hurriedly went up to the register to pay for it knowing it was a score. Then when I went to leaf through it on the subway I noticed it was autographed. In December of 2003, I attended a conference on Chechnya in D.C. where she was supposed to speak. I disappointedly noticed she never arrived. An ally of hers, an American professor then stood up and announced to the audience that she had been notified by a crony of Vladimir Putin that if she traveled to Washington and spoke out against the atrocities of the second Russo-Chechen war, which she had every right to do as an American citizen (she was an ethnic Ukrainian born in New York holding US citizenship, the child of Soviet diplomat parents), she would be barred from returning to Russia. I have no way of ever knowing if that was exactly the case but I have no reason to doubt it either. Damn.

A Dirty War is one of the most serious books on the subject out there. Her second book A Small Corner of Hell: Dispatches from Chechnya is hard to read. I’m not sure if I ever quite finished it. I still haven’t brought myself to read any of her posthumously published works. Вы все еще пропустили Анна… (на украинском языке: Ви все ще пропустили Ганна)

Cutting the Fuse in the Capitol

October 13th, 2010 Comments off

As part of Pape's Powerpoint presentation, he showed four As-Sahab produced videos of the 19 9/11 hijackers including this one of Saudi national Waleed al-Sheri who crashed into the North Tower (along with two of the Pakistani-Britons from 7/7). As I sat in the audience watching them, I wondered how many Americans had ever seen these militant video testimonials.

Washington D.C.- The University of Chicago’s Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism (CPOST) and the New America Foundation hosted a conference in the Capitol’s subterranean auditorium entitled “Cutting the Fuse: Moving Beyond the War on Terror” which was a day-long symposium about the future of the war on terror for lack of a more progressive or nuanced term. It was co-hosted by Steve Clemons of New America and Robert Pape of Chicago. The central presentation was of course Pape’s new book Cutting the Fuse: The Explosion of Global Suicide Terrorism and How to Stop It (the sequel to 2005′s Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism) and many of the panelists who followed his presentation commented on his theories both positively and negatively. I overall tend to concur with Pape’s overarching thesis on the relationship between suicide attacks and foreign military occupation and I loved Dying to Win for its emphasis on the (for) now-defunct Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) who were fighting for an ethnic Tamil homeland carved out of northern and eastern Sri Lanka until they suffered a leadership decapitation with the death of their cultish leader Velupillai Prabhakaran and the LTTE’s subsequent defeat on the battlefield in the spring of 2009 (for further reading on the bloody conclusion of this tragedy, see my piece Sri Lanka: The UN’s “Bloodbath” in Context). Pape makes the important point which is largely lost on a Washington audience because of its perceived utter irrelevance to U.S. foreign policy.

Until the start of the Iraq war in March of 2003, the LTTE, a little understood Marxist Hindu Tamil personality cult operating on the fringe of South Asia’s southern tier, ran the world’s most successful suicide bombing campaign which assassinated two world leaders (former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 and Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa in 1993) in their 26 bloody years on the world stage. In his first book, Pape clearly laid out with the excellent example of the LTTE, that suicide bombing in and of itself is not a phenomenon of global Islamic radicalism. A later panelist, Sahar Aziz, an adjunct law professor at Georgetown and a prominent civil rights attorney made another point I applauded. In what Robert Pape might describe as a minor “Black Swan event” in his new book, Aziz brought up the bizarre case of the suicide attack on the local IRS office in Austin, Texas on February 18 of this year when an deranged man of a European-American Christian background carried out a suicide attack in a single engine plane. The federal government took immediate pains to state that the incident was a criminal act and not one of terrorism while Muslim civil rights groups decried the hypocrisy. Aziz told the audience, correctly in my estimation, that had the attacker had an Arabic name rather than Andrew Joseph Stack III, it would have undoubtedly been immediately and irreversibly classified as a terrorist attack, case closed.

It always make things interesting when people have strong disagreements with other’s ideas in a such a public setting. Kori Schake, a Hoover fellow and former National Security Advisor to the McCain presidential campaign, seemed to still cling to the terribly out of fashion neoconservative idea of remaking the Middle East and adjacent environs with a large military footprint. One of the cornerstones of Pape’s empirical study is that suicide attacks never existed in Afghanistan (with the very particular exception of the Belgian-Tunisian al-Qaeda assassination of Ahmad Shah Masood two days before 9/11), Pakistan (with the exception of the Zawahiri-directed suicide bombing of the Egyptian embassy in Islamabad in 1995), or Iraq before the commencement of the war on terror. The whole concept seemed to be lost on Ms. Schake who seemed to still believe in the “we’re fighting them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” ideology thereby missing the entire point of the empiricism. Another such one of these was Chicago doctoral student Jenna Jordan’s all numbers presentation on leadership decapitation (the capture or killing of an insurgent leader thereby evaporating the group’s momentum causing it to wither away) and her idea that the eventual death of bin Laden will have a negligible effect on the hoped-for decline of AQ Central. Her idea was immediately attacked by Peter Bergen who cited the bay’at (the oath) the member’s of al-Qaeda’s core swore to bin Laden personally. Bergen emphasized that the oath was not to AQ but to bin Laden personally and if he were to be killed in a drone strike, Bergen believed it would have a devastating effect on the group from which it would be difficult to recover.

Robert Pape outlines his empirical theory of the effects of military occupation on local populations and the correlation with the rise of suicide terrorism.

Time Capsule: Najaf, Iraq-April, 2003

October 5th, 2010 No comments

A young man hoists a poster of Hazrat Imam Hussayn riding his horse Zuljanah during the battle of Karbala in 680 a.d.. ©2003 Derek Henry Flood

Mothers carry their children above the fray in front of the shrine of Imam Ali ibn Talib in Najaf. ©2003 Derek Henry Flood

A young Iraqi boy salutes my old Canon camera on the streets of the holy city. ©2003 Derek Henry Flood

A Shia tribesman from southern Iraq circumambulates the shrine of Imam Ali ibn Talib. ©2003 Derek Henry Flood

New York- I was flipping through some now very old seeming contact sheets from my pre-digital, post-9/11 adventures where the neoconservatives were hard at work (though hardly working in their scant understanding of Middle Eastern history) reshaping a region they knew virtually nothing about outside of their beloved Judea and Samaria. I decided to scan a couple of these photos, which have never been seen, and share them with the amorphous online community. They were taken in the holy city of Najaf and depict the explosion of collective religious emotion among Iraq’s historically oppressed Shia population following the deposement of President Saddam Hussein by the United States. These were Donald Rumsfeld’s crudely generalized “free people” just before the many years of fitna (inter religious warfare) set in.

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September issue of Militant Leadership Monitor

October 1st, 2010 No comments

New York- The new issue of MLM is out on the Jamestown site for subscribers (and those wanting to join). I have an article about the civil war in Colombia and the death of Mono Jojoy and the search for FARC supremo Alfonso Cano and brief articles on the doings of All Parties Hurriyat Conference leaders in Kashmir and the extradition of Mas Selamat Kastari back to Singapore from Malaysia. Colleague and friend Syed Adnan Shah Ali Bukhari has an in-depth biography of the nefarious Qari Hussain of the TTP. The RAND corporation’s Peter Chalk has a profile of Yazid Sufaat and Toronto’s Andrew McGregor has a fascinating piece on Puntland’s Shaykh Atam and his militia movement in northern Somalia’s autonomous region.